as I understand it, Pres. Trump is in a difficult situation, the WSJ editorial however weighing in on the +is and -is encouraged Trump to proceed with Bombing he Underground nuclear site. We are already supporting Israel with weapons etc., why not loan Israel the Bomber and the massive bomb and let them do the dirty work.
I am Iranian by birth and anti-regime living in EU. Old enough to remember 1979 so called revolution and all that went after it.
We cannot do regime change by. bombing any country.
You must have either
1-forces within the regime to do a coup,
2-popular uprising by the unhappy folks
3- Total annihilation of the current regime and installation of a puppet government by the US/EU/RU/IS , etc...
At the moment there are no legitimate and organized opposition party or group who can be used to taken over the power vacuums in case of regime fall.
As detailed by BDW, if US and Israel destroy the infrastructures as they did in Iraq, etc... there could be back firing against the perpetrators
The Iranian youth are tired of the current Islamic regime and can tolerate some pain for the birth of the new system.
However, they canNOT stand too long with empty hands in front of a fully armed regime suppressing / killing them.
I hope part of the plan would be to assist with arming and guiding forces to take over the system and minimize the damage to the publicly needed infrastructures such as oil refineries, depots, power , etc....
Not to forget that a section of the oligarchy in power within Iran, was/is willing to make a DEAL, a Beautiful Deal with President Trump.
So there is a chance the current system may survive in a different shape or form,
We shall see.
I go for Option 2 and hope people will get on their feet and come out and pay the price for their own freedom.
US/EU/RU/IS are all after their own agenda and not necessarily Iranian people future.
my 2cents,
with some knowledge of the Persian culture, ;)
Cheers all and hope for the brighter future for Iran and ME.
Bryan, one more question, I fully agree that Iran and other groups have operatives in this country. I also believe that Iran has reached the point that they need to "Use or Lose" these these groups if they are going to have any effect in the current conflict. The longer that Iran waits, even if they can effect a "Mass Casualty" event, the lesser the effect it will have on the strategic outcome of this conflict. So do you have any insight as to why Iran has not activated these groups?
So, guess you aren’t sleeping with drinking from the “ Firehose “ of News, almost every day now :P
Thank you BDW for an extremely detailed analysis ! You always put things in perspective and give insights, hardly anyone else is interested in or talking about.
You may have started something, you might want to continue.
I loved the Weekend Update !!!
Yes ,I know you have a Life outside of the podcast but the extra email was a nice edition to your normal week.
Sequel to my comments above about the number of Iran’s missiles that remain.
The more Iranian missile launchers that are destroyed by Israel, the fewer the number of missiles that Iran can launch in a barrage. In turn, that should improve the effectiveness of Israel’s missile defense & lessen the number of missiles hitting their targets on the ground in Israel.
Israel knows this.
I assume Israel will continue to prioritize the targeting of Iran’s missile launchers.
How many ballistic missiles does Iran have left to use?
I recall hearing Gen Keane, USA (Ret), on Fox TV on Friday that at the start of the current military situation on 13 June, Iran had approximately 3000 missiles in its arsenal. From Marc’s comments above, Iran has expended about 425 (200+75+75+75) missiles during the past 2 days/nights. That leaves about 2575 missiles left to use. If Iran launches 200 to 225 missiles per 24-hour period continuously during the next several days/nights that would equate to roughly 11 to 13 days including today that Iran has left to try to destroy as much as Israel as it possibly could - i.e., less than 2 weeks or before the end of June.
Iran, of course, could slow down their daily launch rate to extend their missile barrages for several more days. But that would give Israel more time to retaliate with their air strikes on remaining Iranian targets.
What about the possibility of Iran getting more missiles to use to continue to attack Israel?
Very unlikely in my view since additional large number of missiles would have to be re-supplied via sea & I assume Israel is watching Iranian ports of entry very closely to strike the offloaded missiles almost immediately.
Bottom line: I expect Iran to either capitulate within the next week or 2. Or, do something unexpected - like using “dirty” (= chemical or biological) warheads on their missiles to cause mass destruction in Israel.
Bryan, I have no intel on Iran’s dirty warhead capabilities - they may not even exist. Can you confirm if Iran has or does not have chem-bio missile warheads ?
We don't know how much of the missile stockpile has been destroyed. We also are guessing what their replenishment rate may be and what thei supply chains may be. Good questions but tough to have solid info on them.
Brian – Thank you for the Israel-Iran update. I am certain that President Trump, whom I support, has the same or more detailed update regarding the nuclear threat as it is related to the Fordow facility. In my view this threat is a magnitude greater, given you observant that “…the Ayatollah doesn’t want to be the man who goes down in history as the cleric who oversaw the destruction of the Islamic experiment.” My concern is President Trump’s willingness to close “a deal.” This was recently demonstrated in his willingness to NOT DECOUPLE from China, allowing 500,000 Chinese student-spys into our universities and colleges and his willingness to continue to “dance with the devil” by also allowing the China fentanyl attack on America to continue in order to get a trade “deal.”
as I understand it, Pres. Trump is in a difficult situation, the WSJ editorial however weighing in on the +is and -is encouraged Trump to proceed with Bombing he Underground nuclear site. We are already supporting Israel with weapons etc., why not loan Israel the Bomber and the massive bomb and let them do the dirty work.
Excellent! Love the weekend update!
Stop calling liberals "the resistance". You can't be "the resistance" if the main stream media is on your side.
I am Iranian by birth and anti-regime living in EU. Old enough to remember 1979 so called revolution and all that went after it.
We cannot do regime change by. bombing any country.
You must have either
1-forces within the regime to do a coup,
2-popular uprising by the unhappy folks
3- Total annihilation of the current regime and installation of a puppet government by the US/EU/RU/IS , etc...
At the moment there are no legitimate and organized opposition party or group who can be used to taken over the power vacuums in case of regime fall.
As detailed by BDW, if US and Israel destroy the infrastructures as they did in Iraq, etc... there could be back firing against the perpetrators
The Iranian youth are tired of the current Islamic regime and can tolerate some pain for the birth of the new system.
However, they canNOT stand too long with empty hands in front of a fully armed regime suppressing / killing them.
I hope part of the plan would be to assist with arming and guiding forces to take over the system and minimize the damage to the publicly needed infrastructures such as oil refineries, depots, power , etc....
Not to forget that a section of the oligarchy in power within Iran, was/is willing to make a DEAL, a Beautiful Deal with President Trump.
So there is a chance the current system may survive in a different shape or form,
We shall see.
I go for Option 2 and hope people will get on their feet and come out and pay the price for their own freedom.
US/EU/RU/IS are all after their own agenda and not necessarily Iranian people future.
my 2cents,
with some knowledge of the Persian culture, ;)
Cheers all and hope for the brighter future for Iran and ME.
Bryan, one more question, I fully agree that Iran and other groups have operatives in this country. I also believe that Iran has reached the point that they need to "Use or Lose" these these groups if they are going to have any effect in the current conflict. The longer that Iran waits, even if they can effect a "Mass Casualty" event, the lesser the effect it will have on the strategic outcome of this conflict. So do you have any insight as to why Iran has not activated these groups?
There's no genocide in Gaza.
So, guess you aren’t sleeping with drinking from the “ Firehose “ of News, almost every day now :P
Thank you BDW for an extremely detailed analysis ! You always put things in perspective and give insights, hardly anyone else is interested in or talking about.
You may have started something, you might want to continue.
I loved the Weekend Update !!!
Yes ,I know you have a Life outside of the podcast but the extra email was a nice edition to your normal week.
You are so much appreciated !!!
Thank you Sir !!! And , Sis too :)
Thank you for all you do. I would never know this information without listening to you.
Spot on
Sequel to my comments above about the number of Iran’s missiles that remain.
The more Iranian missile launchers that are destroyed by Israel, the fewer the number of missiles that Iran can launch in a barrage. In turn, that should improve the effectiveness of Israel’s missile defense & lessen the number of missiles hitting their targets on the ground in Israel.
Israel knows this.
I assume Israel will continue to prioritize the targeting of Iran’s missile launchers.
Lingering question regarding Iran:
How many ballistic missiles does Iran have left to use?
I recall hearing Gen Keane, USA (Ret), on Fox TV on Friday that at the start of the current military situation on 13 June, Iran had approximately 3000 missiles in its arsenal. From Marc’s comments above, Iran has expended about 425 (200+75+75+75) missiles during the past 2 days/nights. That leaves about 2575 missiles left to use. If Iran launches 200 to 225 missiles per 24-hour period continuously during the next several days/nights that would equate to roughly 11 to 13 days including today that Iran has left to try to destroy as much as Israel as it possibly could - i.e., less than 2 weeks or before the end of June.
Iran, of course, could slow down their daily launch rate to extend their missile barrages for several more days. But that would give Israel more time to retaliate with their air strikes on remaining Iranian targets.
What about the possibility of Iran getting more missiles to use to continue to attack Israel?
Very unlikely in my view since additional large number of missiles would have to be re-supplied via sea & I assume Israel is watching Iranian ports of entry very closely to strike the offloaded missiles almost immediately.
Bottom line: I expect Iran to either capitulate within the next week or 2. Or, do something unexpected - like using “dirty” (= chemical or biological) warheads on their missiles to cause mass destruction in Israel.
Bryan, I have no intel on Iran’s dirty warhead capabilities - they may not even exist. Can you confirm if Iran has or does not have chem-bio missile warheads ?
We don't know how much of the missile stockpile has been destroyed. We also are guessing what their replenishment rate may be and what thei supply chains may be. Good questions but tough to have solid info on them.
Brian – Thank you for the Israel-Iran update. I am certain that President Trump, whom I support, has the same or more detailed update regarding the nuclear threat as it is related to the Fordow facility. In my view this threat is a magnitude greater, given you observant that “…the Ayatollah doesn’t want to be the man who goes down in history as the cleric who oversaw the destruction of the Islamic experiment.” My concern is President Trump’s willingness to close “a deal.” This was recently demonstrated in his willingness to NOT DECOUPLE from China, allowing 500,000 Chinese student-spys into our universities and colleges and his willingness to continue to “dance with the devil” by also allowing the China fentanyl attack on America to continue in order to get a trade “deal.”
Ahead of the curve once again good job. Your hard work is greatly appreciated.
I hope the Iranian people will rise up and take down the Ayatollah. If Israel or the USA does it, it will make the Ayatollah a martyr.
Happy Father’s Day to all of you who are Dads!
Well thought our.